It’s time to take a few steps back and assess our progress, gauge our growth and prepare ourselves for the year to come.

It’s that time of year again…the holidays. A little less happy this year perhaps, compared to the boom times of recent years, but happy nonetheless.

It’s also a time to reflect on the year that was and the year that soon will be. From a personal standpoint, it’s a time to reflect on the real priorities in life: family, friendship, health and happiness. After all, no one ever lay on his or death bed saying, if only I had spent more time in the office!

From a professional standpoint, it’s a time to reflect on another Internet Year – a Year for the Dogs perhaps, but an Internet Dog-Year irrespective.

It’s a time to reflect on what worked and what didn’t…and I’m sure by now you know I’m not referring to the metrics. It’s the human resource policies; the investments in marketing, events, education and training; the strategies and tactics employed to woo the reticent; the evaluation of the best practices and lessons learned that have bubbled up to the forefront.

It’s time to take a few steps back and assess our progress, gauge our growth and prepare ourselves for the year to come.

For me, it’s a time to make bold predictions; assured by the fact if they don’t come true, you’ll have forgotten about them anyway, but if they do materialize, I’m confident I’ll remind you about them at least once a week.

I went back to my articles from about this time last year, and dug up some of my year-end self-professed prophecies in order to evaluate whether they were pearls or howlers.

Prediction 1: We will move ever closer to full-screen advertising in 2002. Now there’s a simple standard - a full page!

I’ll give myself a B+ for this. While we’re certainly not yet at a full-page standard, we’re seeing a lot more full-screen advertising, whether in the form of intro-mercials (sometimes even non-clickable) or the adoption and utilization of rich media platforms that incorporate the full dimensions of the screen (the DHTML execution at the forefront). In short, advertisers, agencies and publishers are embracing solutions that give them a fighting chance of making a dent on the elusive attention spans of consumers.

Prediction 2: The United States will dominate the Cannes Awards in 2002 – indicative of a creative renaissance and a return to the fundamentals of effective messaging.

C+ I think. Grand Prix honors were shared by Europe and the United States, but neither represented a paid media solution (alas, BMW films continues to overshadow online advertising). The United States snagged three out of four Gold Cyber Lions in the HTML banner category for the arresting drunk driving campaign, however, didn’t feature in the rich media banner or beyond the banner categories. ABSOLUT came to the rescue in the Silver category (although does it count that it’s a Swedish Vodka?), while the cupboard was largely bare in the Bronze department.

Note to Cannes: Could we please do something about the “banner” descriptor next year?

I’m sorry to say it, but the United States is still hopelessly underrepresented in this crème de la crème recognition of excellence in advertising. When you factor in the resources at our disposal -- access to technology, larger audience and superior connectivity speeds -- it is simply inexcusable and downright embarrassing.

This being said, I’m going to boost my rating to a B-, based on two reasons. First, because I can; and second, because of the attention and commitment being given to this space during the past few months. Eyeblaster put together a great show to announce the winner of its Eyeblaster 2002 Award; Yahoo! assembled a top-notch creative summit; @d-tech has its award ceremony; MSN will be sponsoring the iMedia Creative of the Week Showcase (launching in 2003) and iMedia devotes an entire panel every Summit to recognize the latest and greatest creative achievements.

Prediction 3: Expect to see the online advertising model turned on its head. This is not print. This is not broadcast. Consumers use this “medium” so differently. We need to think long and hard about this; to potentially reinvent the advertising value-proposition online in a way that makes sense to the discerning and empowered consumer.

This is a tough one to grade. I think I’ll go with a C+, based on a mixed, albeit encouraging scorecard of new approaches and attempts. I spoke about the incentive or endorsement model, which has since been implemented by Ultramercial on Salon. We’re also seeing our fair share of new forms of advertising, which is, for the most part, striking a more appealing balance between being intrusive, without being too disruptive in the process. Opt-in streaming solutions, expandable banners, and creative that leverages the learnings based on past successes and failures are all leading the charge in this area.

It’s still early days, but I fully expect more innovation in the form of new business models that use technology to create a smarter, mutually acceptable communications value-proposition between marketer and consumer.

Prediction 4: Interactivity will lead into involvement, whereby consumers will control, direct or become a part of the advertising process.

I’m going to give myself an A- for this one, giving credit to most of the industry players for maintaining focus on the power of interactivity and the role it plays in the online advertising space.

I recently perused the differences in cabin seating comfort between the major airlines, thanks to Point.roll and American Airlines; I witnessed first hand the dual climate control of the GMC Yukon through Unicast and Digitas; I interacted with Gentle Ben the Bear with the help of CL&S and Eyeblaster.

Interactivity is, without a doubt, the primary differentiator and competitive advantage that makes this medium unlike any other in the history of media. There are a plethora of great examples out there, but unfortunately there’s still the nagging presence of the broadcast mentality, which must be addressed if we are to keep this top grade.

All in all, a pretty good showing based on my biased self-assessment. But in all seriousness, a much improved showing – a reflection and demonstration of continued strides towards evolving and maturing this medium into the profound offering that is capable of realizing its true potential.

Enjoy your holiday rest because you’ll truly need it in the New Year. Happy Holidays to you and yours.

Juice out.