Upstream Group President Doug Weaver talks with our exec editor about why more than half of the ad sellers are ready to quit their jobs and the potential impact on agencies.
Last week, Upstream Group released the surprising results of a survey showing that -- even though they are happy with their jobs -- more than 50 percent of ad sales reps are either actively looking or open to new jobs.
To make sense of this, and to see what sort of domino effect this might have on the rest of the industry, I reached out to Doug Weaver.
Brad Berens: What's the fortune cookie description of the survey you did and its results?
Doug Weaver: Business is booming for ad sellers today, so everyone seems pretty happy, right? Then why is there so much movement and successful poaching going on? Is it really just about money and stock, or is there something else going on? It's a big fortune cookie, but these are the answers we tried to get at in this study. We did a blind web-based survey and invited sellers from dozens of leading sites to take part.
Berens: Here at iMedia, we talk a lot about the "human capital" problem of there not being enough people in the digital side of the industry to hire, let alone enough talented digital people. You've spoken about this at our iMedia Summits. And Advertising Age had this issue as a cover story back in August. How does this survey plug into that ongoing issue? Are the sales reps canaries in the coal mine for the rest of the industry?
Weaver: You know I love a good metaphor as much as the next guy, but I'll deal with the canary question in a minute. I think the results of the survey get right to the heart of the human capital issue on three levels.
First, we get a picture that says that nearly 50 percent of sales reps are happy -- and arguably productive -- but are open to other offer. This is the quiet crisis for publishers. These are likely some of your best people and you don't even know they're flight risks. These are the resignations that surprise a lot of managers and can destroy the annual sales plan.
The second important fact is that money and stock weren't the big decision points for a lot of these people. Two out of three reps told us that being fairly compensated for doing fulfilling work was the most important driver in their careers. Only 10 percent cited the opportunity for wealth. What this tells us is that there are a lot of other underlying issues that a publisher can fix before they have to start matching huge increases. Your rep isn't leaving just for the money. He's leaving because of some underlying issues that you're allowing to fester.
Finally, there's the simple fact that for all the time and effort most publishers spend on recruitment and hiring, most haven't spent an hour developing a retention strategy. If your retention strategy is reactionary, then you don't have one.
Now, back to your canary question. I see the hiring and retention crisis among publishers having massive effect on the rest of the industry. As they lose people, publishers will continue to hire away some of the most talented people from the agency business. I've heard recently that between 30 and 40 percent of agency planning and buying jobs are unfilled at this point. It's not a pretty picture.
Berens: Let's stick with the agencies for a minute. The survey focused on sellers within publishing, but if you're an interactive agency are there details within the results that are particularly salient? How would an agency retention strategy differ from a publisher one? And should the brand marketers be worried as well?
Weaver: I'm an outsider to the agency business, but I think their personnel problem is going to be a lot harder to fix. The middle management ranks have been severely depleted and the executional side of online agency work is incredibly labor intensive and not much fun. So you've got junior people who are either looking to get out or make a quick jump to management where the oxygen is better. I think the major theme from our study that also applies to agencies is to give people a clear understanding of strategy and try to give them work that's satisfying. But given the middle management issue at agencies, that's a tough one to pull off.
As for the brand marketers, I don't see them having the same problem. I think their work is, by nature, a bit more strategic to start with. And they have pretty lean online operations. If you've got one of those jobs, you're probably okay with it for now… at least until the CMO leaves in 23 months.
Berens: How important do you think digital experience is to success in digital ad sales?
Weaver: Not as important as people think... at least not on the publisher side. I'm consistently seeing people come over from other media or from non-related sales disciplines -- promotions, financial services, etc. -- and doing a great job selling. Many of the people who are so rich in interactive experience have a tendency to get caught up in the weeds. I'd rather have someone on my staff who understands marketing and the business of the clients on her list. Much of the stuff that's so "complex" about our business isn't really the stuff that adds value. "Optimizing" a campaign isn't a skill that's going to help me double my numbers.
Berens: Lately, folks are starting to talk more and more about "Bubble 2.0." Do the survey results -- or your general impression -- Are we in another bubblicious time?
Weaver: In reading between the lines, I think there's a more grown-up attitude toward the business today than there was seven or eight years ago. I think there's a realization among sellers that very few stock-option lottery tickets are going to end up winning, so they're thinking about their career and the quality of their lives a bit more. I'm not seeing the pyramid forming this time around. The challenge, though, is that now that salespeople are thinking about their careers, management has to start thinking that way too.
Berens: Let's talk about evaluating new opportunities-- since there are so many out there right now. What's the Doug Weaver take on the growth of the interactive job market? If you were to advise somebody with one year, two years, five years of experience about how to evaluate a new opportunity with one of the infinite startups, then -- based on the survey results and your own insights -- what questions would you suggest they ask? Or, if that sounds like too many questions, what are the two biggest red flags when a company comes to recruit an ad seller?
Weaver: In giving career advice, I always end up suggesting the same three questions:
One: Are these great people and can I learn from them? If you're the smartest person in the room, run the other way. And don't bet on the model or the market… you still need the people to make the right decisions.
Two: Is the job doable? Entrepreneurs get funding by telling their investors beautiful lies about market size and revenue. In sales, you inherit those lies, and often you don't have the traffic or the resources to get the job done. I'm seeing people who've spun through four or five jobs in the last seven years this way.
Three: Would you take the job if the opportunity for wealth wasn't there? Stock options are important, but they may or may not pay out. And to be successful you've got to love the work and love the mission. So, could you set them aside completely and still take the job?
Berens: Last question: what question should I have asked that I didn't?
Weaver: What it takes to be a great manager or leader in this market. But that's a different discussion.