Your online efforts can bring disgruntled post-strike TV viewers back into the fold; find out how.
The writers and studios should certainly be congratulated for putting an end to the bitter war over DVD and download royalties. Amidst all the giant sighs of relief within the industry, there's one minor detail that could prove problematic: it seems that the viewers aren't willing to come back to the table anytime soon.
Given the decidedly negative discussion among general TV viewers lamenting the absence of their favorite scripted shows in TV message boards and blogs over the last few months, one would assume a bright future for the industry once those shows were to return. In looking at these two recent trends in ratings and online word of mouth, the effects of the strike may actually last longer than expected.
Decreases in online activity
Viewers are less engaged with traditional word-of-mouth powerhouses, like "Grey's Anatomy" and "Lost," than they were last year. Thousands of audience comments from general TV sites (IMDB, TV.com) and fan forums like lostfans come across my desk each week, usually accompanied by snap-shot buzz comparisons from as far back as two years ago. So far in 2008, both of these previously buzz-worthy shows have seen an average 10 percent drop in engagement -- fans have been less active in blogging and posting messages. Even though "Grey's Anatomy" has been in repeats since mid January and would be exempt from concern to the naked eye, a quick look at females 18-49 on sites like Grey's Anatomy Insider also shows less enthusiasm (15 percent fewer posts than during repeat-heavy periods in January last year). For "Lost" the story is much of the same, as commentary from mainstream bloggers has waned in frequency from this time in 2007. According to Technorati, the volume of posts featuring "Lost" discussion was almost 30 percent higher during last February. Considering that "Lost" was one of the only returning scripted shows to air during the strike and should have capitalized on a lack of other viewing options, the news is troubling.
The downward trend in online activity doesn’t end with discussion either, as recent statistics indicate an overall decrease in streaming and video downloads. According to the figures published on NewTeeVee, overall web video views were down 5 percent from December (almost 300 million less views). YouTube, the industry leader in video streaming, was down 70 million streams from December. Many might have assumed that a lack of original content on television would have led to increased activity on the web, but viewers were apparently quick to find other activities. With the strong correlation between online word-of-mouth/video streaming and television viewership, it's no surprise that this second trend has recently come to the forefront:
Can online save the day?
Viewership for first-run unscripted episodes has been faltering since the end of the strike. According to figures published in Media Life, the Big Three networks (CBS, NBC and ABC) all suffered a combined 11 percent drop from the last week in February among adults 18-49 (also the most active demographic online). With "American Idol" keeping a reality-heavy FOX in the driver's seat, viewers were less enthused to see new offerings from usual ratings stalwarts like "Lost" (ABC), "Jericho" (CBS) and the original "Law and Order" (NBC).
However, while the above information may not encompass the ingredients needed for a successful return, it does provide marketers with an opportunity to reach out to disheartened audiences directly to make up for lost time. Much like companies who issue apologies to customers for not delivering products as promised, marketers have the opportunity to effectively communicate to audiences why the strike occurred, and why the audience is such a valuable entity for studios.
For example, ABC has been running ads that say "your favorite shows are back." However, these ads may not be strong enough to quell the bitterness many fans still feel. It could very well be the riskier advertisements and networks that go against the grain that will ultimately grab viewer attention and allow them to forgive and forget. Why not run candid ads that blur the line between the shows and the business of TV? Fans might appreciate hearing from producers and writers -- something along the lines of, "Hey, we're sorry that business got in the way of you spending time with 'McDreamy' or 'Jack' and 'Sawyer'...We promise to make it up to you." At the very least, this would give fans more to discuss, and would help to generate momentum for the new season and increase sentiment for the networks as a whole.
The sports and entertainment industry hasn't seen a fallout like this from a work stoppage since the baseball strike in 1994. It took a magical homerun race and a boatload of steroids to bring back fans four years later in 1998. There is still hope that the return of a full slate of more favorite shows in the fall (e.g., "House," "Heroes" and "CSI") will buoy the Big Three networks. If not, we may soon read of a desperate "Gil Grissom" seeking out Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens for some advice on how to win back the viewers.
Michael Coristine is the senior research manager for the media division at BrandIntel.