There have been recent predictions concerning advertising's future if a recession hits. Underscore Marketing's president offers some predictions of his own.

Jack Myers had an interesting Media Business Report yesterday. In it, he talked about how the recession would affect the ad business. For the most part, I agree with him, but I'd like to take his predictions a step or two further. First, though, let me deal with this gem from the opening paragraph of his piece:

"Assuming this week's release of fourth quarter GDP data confirms an official recessionary economy, marketers, media companies, economists and unofficial economic pundits will weigh in with appropriately reactionary forecasts of ad industry doom and gloom."

Regardless of whether the U.S. GDP shows two consecutive quarters of decline, we've all seen the signs of an economy that's not doing well. Rising energy prices, the credit crunch and a number of other factors have cut into advertiser margins and made them skittish. We've been seeing the effects of this for months now, if not for more than a year. We're seeing more investment into accountable digital marketing programs, many times funded with dollars that might have been used for traditional advertising. But these investments might not be driven solely by what Myers believes is driving them. 

From his column:

"Joel Ewanick, marketing VP for Hyundai Motor America, says, 'Online is getting to the point where it may be more important than the 30-second spot.' I disagree. But advertisers will demand more accountability from their 30-second spots, and will look for ways to bring their TV and online budgets together in more measurable and convergent models."

I think what many advertisers are starting to realize is that while one-way media should be more accountable, advertisers are looking for broadcast to be more accountable outside the realm of reach, frequency and GRPs. They need to be more accountable in terms of keeping prospects engaged.

In other words, advertisers can no longer afford to carpet bomb. Keeping awareness and consideration levels high via a year-round presence with TV commercials doesn't cut the mustard anymore. Advertisers are looking for broadcast media to drive people into other programs that will keep them engaged with the brand, without having to continually run broadcast ads to keep awareness and consideration levels up. Increasingly, those "other programs" are digital in nature.

The automotive category is a perfect example. A marketing chief at an automotive manufacturer can choose to carpet bomb throughout the year with broadcast and amp-up the direct channel to drive dealership foot traffic, but it's not likely that a marketing budget will support the levels needed to get this done. Alternatively, the automotive company can look into a multi channel approach, where TV commercials aim not only to keep awareness and consideration up, but also to engage via digital. If the auto company keeps people engaged online, it doesn't need to carpet bomb anymore.

Digital marketing is important to the auto category in general, since autos are a highly considered purchase and maybe one in 10 auto buyers are completely unaffected by digital media when they make their purchase. Engaging them in the medium they're likely to use to narrow their consideration just makes sense.

Myers also says in his piece that delivering targeted audiences is key to success:

"Media companies that have invested in relevant multi-platform capabilities and that can deliver targeted audiences across multiple branded media assets will attract the lion's share of growth in 2008 and into the foreseeable future."

I agree with this statement, but I want to take it a step further because I believe multi-channel media companies will succeed, but perhaps not for the reasons Myers believes.  It's not just about delivering messages to audiences across the media they consume -- it's about getting people to interact with brands and using broadcast media to keep people engaged through digital.

This is why I think the remainder of 2008 is going to see a lot of drive-to-digital. Very few advertisers can spend the kind of money that will keep them in people's faces and keep their share of voice ahead of the rest of their particular category. They can, however, shift strategy with their broadcast media and use it to drive people to digital programs that handle the engagement piece more efficiently.

I think we're going to see television, radio, out-of-home and other one-way media driving people to the web, mobile and email-based CRM. And I also think that broadcast media are going to be increasingly judged on the ability to drive people into these programs. The value of the engagement will be measured in ways similar to those that I described in the last half of last week's column.

Many of my clients have shifted from messaging strategies to engagement strategies in the past two years. I'm looking forward to seeing more of it.

Tom Hespos is the president of Underscore Marketing and blogs at Hespos.com.