Confused by the industry's never-ending news cycle? Geoffrey Ramsey, eMarketer's CEO, sheds some light on the stories that are impacting the interactive industry.

Geoffrey Ramsey, eMarketer's CEO, chats with iMedia about recent headlines and what they mean for marketers.

iMedia: In recent weeks, Microsoft has been telling anyone who will listen that it plans to be a serious player in online advertising, with Kevin Johnson, Microsoft's president of platforms and services, saying the company will be No. 1 or No. 2 within the next 3-5 years. Is this realistic?

Ramsey: Despite their great war chest and general posturing, I think it is highly unlikely that Microsoft will be able to unseat the incumbent players, especially Google and Yahoo!, in the high stakes online advertising market. Microsoft simply does not have the core competency in advertising to pull this off. It can throw a lot of money around, but it will take more than a few years to turn the ship around.

iMedia: A few weeks ago, AOL said it would begin offering a do-not-track list that would be similar to the do-not-call list for telemarketers. At the same time, behavioral targeting has come under fire from the FTC and some consumer advocacy groups. Is this much ado about nothing, or should online marketers be concerned about a backlash?

Ramsey: Like it or not, consumers have a voice today, and there are mounting concerns about privacy that will need to be resolved. Online marketers should proceed cautiously and remind consumers that they, too, stand to benefit from more targeted ads. Eventually, we as an industry will have to develop some kind of guidelines that put restrictions on what can, and cannot, be done in the interest of targeting consumers.

iMedia: Social networks are getting a lot of attention these days, with most of the press going to Facebook and MySpace (in that order). But recent data from Nielsen Online for October found that LinkedIn grew the most year-over-year. Is the press missing some real gems in the space?

Ramsey: Social networks are here to stay, but I think we are going to see many more vertical social networks pop up that meet the needs of a particular demographic or common interest group. The big will continue to get bigger (i.e., Facebook and MySpace), but their growth will eventually slow as people gravitate towards networks that are more tailored for their use.

iMedia: Hulu, the video joint venture between NBCU and News Corp., is working to become the go-to destination for TV content online. To that end, Hulu has included search results on its site for shows that air on rival networks. Is this a smart move?

Ramsey: This is a smart move. It is ludicrous to think that any single website can meet all of a given audience's needs by itself. The web is about removing friction, and the sooner marketers, content providers and others realize that, the better. Today, it's all about aggregation and partnerships to best meet the needs of your audience.

iMedia: By all predictions, online advertising is expected to see amazing growth in the next few years. But a recent New York Times story found that digital could be missing out on major ad dollars because of the lack of uniform metrics. Do you agree with that assessment, and how do you see questions of measurement shaping up in the future?

Ramsey: I think measurement is the single biggest obstacle impeding future growth in online advertising. We will fix the measurement issue, and when we do, the other media will have to live up to the new standard.

iMedia: It seems every week we hear about another major merger or acquisition, and venture capital seems to be flowing fast and easy. Are we in the middle of a bubble?

Ramsey: No, but there will be many more mergers and many more companies biting the dust. The momentum, this time, is very real.

iMedia: The threat of a potential economic slowdown and the sub-prime mortgage crisis have a lot of traditional marketers worried. At the same time, predictions for online growth continue to be strong. Should online marketers be concerned about a potential economic slowdown?

Ramsey: Not as much as the traditional players should. Online may well benefit, as marketers seek to put more limited money in a more efficient medium.

Michael Estrin is associate editor at iMediaConnection. Read full bio.